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词汇 Monte Carlo fallacy
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Online Etymology Dictionary

Monte Carlo fallacy
1957, named for resort in Monaco famous for its gambling casinos. The fallacy of thinking that the probability of a particular outcome rises with the successive number of opposite outcomes. Contrary to the Monte Carlo fallacy, if the roulette wheel stops on black 99 times in a row, the chances that the 100th spin will be red are still just under 50-50.
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更新时间:2025/1/9 12:04:32